I thought I’d give my prediction for the outcome of today’s referendum.
It’s looked pretty tight over the couple of weeks, but as is often the case, I think there will be more distance between the two sides than the media would have us believe.
The status quo tends to have the advantage in elections, since it is easier to stick with what we know than to vote for change, and the unknown.
However, traditionally the opposition in any election tends to have a slight advantage if the weather is miserable; things can seem pretty bleak, and, in such circumstances, maybe change is a good thing. And the weather today has been pretty appalling.
I think that, as my History teacher always used to tell me, that “in the cold, heart light of day, people vote for what they know.”
I suspect, therefore, that ‘Bremain’ has this one in the bag.
And my prediction of the result?
REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION: 59%
LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION: 41%
Of course, anyone who suggests that they know the outcome of any election is a fool.